Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Will That Last?]. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. Yes, another Hillsborough! A few counties in America are known as the "bellwether counties": Those locations that always end up voting for the candidate who ultimately wins in the presidential election. Maricopa (home to Phoenix) is the most populous county in the state by far 60 percent of voters live here. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. or even dive into the markdown files yourself to submit improvements. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. It went for Romney 54 to 44 percent, nearly reflecting the overall margin. 2020 Election (1210) Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". We will only focus on the most recent elections to increase the pool of counties to analyze.). Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. Please keep this in mind as you continue to read through our bellwether analysis. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? The county is home to a huge diaspora of health care workers affiliated with the Cleveland Clinic, and other players in the areas huge medical cluster. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points . Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. That's 14 in a row. Not a bad streak. It's New Hampshire's biggest county by population. In communities . If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). If you find this article meaningful and convincing, please share it far and wide. Watch the margins in Story (Ames) and Scott (Davenport). On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. Weve been losing a lot of younger people to other areas of the country. What results did you discover? Ottawa County wasn't the only swing county to get the outcome wrong this time around. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. GOP Chairman Dale Fellows noted that the population has been steadily aging in recent years. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. None of them impacts the legitimacy of the presidential election. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. It is important to realise these counties have no allegiances whatsoever and will happily vote for whichever party makes the most sense to them based on merit. Moving forward, it is entirely possible that there will be no single county that consistently indicates the results of a national election. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Click on the relevant state then look for the county name.). Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. hide caption. Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Found an error on our site? These counties arent the only ones that matter most swing states have a handful of critical counties, not just one or two but these 25 stand out, either for their voting history, population size or traditional impact on swing-state election results. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. He is based in San Francisco and has also written for NBC News and The Hill. Biden win ends streak for US election bellwethers - The Mercury News Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). Until this year. Sumter County, . Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. BELLWETHER, a documentary web-series, will cover the 2016 presidential election through the eyes and experiences of voters in Terre Haute and Vigo County, the most consistently accurate "bellwether" in the nation. Election night is going to be information overload. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. University of New Hampshire . Lets find a coin, and flip it. The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. Published Nov. 8, 2016 at 5:30 a.m. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. "Especially considering there's a lot of things that has been done that don't get reported at all.". Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. It might be actually the best bellwether in the state, as it closely mirrored the statewide vote in both 2008 and 2012, but it has fewer voters than Jefferson, which we highlighted. our Gitlab account where you can Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. This favors the Democrat party since we are excluding counties that voted Republican in 1988. When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? 03:30. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Key bellwether counties in the swingiest states appeared during the 2016 and 2018 cycles that can help serve as a guide for 2020. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. Read about our approach to external linking. It voted twice for Bush and twice for Obama. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. But after twice voting for George W. Bush, it has since moved well to the left. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 55%-43%. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. In the end, only Clallam County retained its streak this year. It's also worth noting that some voters "split their tickets" between parties voting for Biden but also for Republicans in Congress, for example. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Trump2012: Obama 50%, Romney 49%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 192,278Republicans: 182,364Unaffiliated: 40,047Other: 29,484. Go on, look them up! Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Ron Elving . Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). For Trump to win, he has to carry this populous Detroit suburb. 2016 Election (1135) While local Republican Party candidates enjoyed a bump in local media coverage for opening a new headquarters last summer, Democrats were facing vastly different circumstances. MORE PROOF OF FRAUD: 16 of 17 Bellwether Counties Went for Trump HAS

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