He has had 9,088 receiving+rushing yards over his career. In 2012, Adrian Peterson ran for a near record-breaking 2,097 yards.. If Johnson is the starter, he is probably a value where he is being drafted, but I'm not taking him at his current cost without some reassuring news about his role in the coming weeks. Walter Payton 5. Aaron Jones, Green Bay | Consensus Rankings RB7 | Consensus Projections RB6. Even when Barkley was a big fantasy hit, it took big plays that can be very mercurial from year to year to make it happen. The first thing that pops out at us is that Jerome Bettis 3.9 YPC is a good deal lower than the offensive lines mark of 4.29 (ADY). Jordan McNamara: Like Gaskin, David Johnson is in a cloudy situation after Philip Lindsay drew the starting role in Houston in week 1. Phil Alexander: Michael Thomas' ankle injury opens up additional targets for Kamara, who will operate as New Orleans' de facto No. Andy Hicks: When looking at the Falcons backfield, it is clear there is no one currently there to challenge Mike Davis to start the season. Gordon's arrow is pointing down for 2021, and he could be marginalized as the season goes on because the team also likes free agent signing Mike Boone. His ADP says drafters are aware of the easy schedule down the stretch, but he's still being overvalued at his current price. Andy Hicks: It is hard for an undrafted rookie running back to succeed in the NFL. Brady is known for being the only quarterback in history to win 7 Super Bowls, and is often considered one of the best quarterbacks of all time. Tarik Cohen, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB49 | Consensus Projections RB47. While Hunt has moderate standalone value playing alongside Chubb, he'll need to either break a long run, vulture a touchdown at the goal-line, or catch a score to help you win a weekly matchup -- all things that are difficult to bank on. Sigmund Bloom: Jacobs' ADP would be justified and reasonable if the Raiders hadn't added Kenyan Drake, but they did. Take a chance on a committee back in the same range who might emerge into a starter or become one due to injury. Byars is the only running back in modern NFL history taken in the first 10 picks of the draft who had at least 800 career carries and a per-carry average of 3.6 yards or worse. But you do have to attribute some of his success to his top 10 run blocking. Unfortunately for him, the team replaced the coaching staff that he impressed and signed veteran Carlos Hyde and drafted Travis Etienne in the first round. Perhaps the political and social issues depicted in 'The Grapes of Wrath" were too controversial. His week one status is in doubt, and there are reports he may not be ready for 12-15 touch workloads until October. The Silence of the Lambs (1991) - Director: Jonathan Demme. Saquon Barkley, NY Giants | Consensus Rankings RB4 | Consensus Projections RB5. McDaniels is someone who deploys multiple backs throughout the course of the game. Here are the players who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. Gordon was adequate last year, but that was almost purely on volume. Ben Cummins: I dont want much to do with the Texans at all this season. Gordon has always been a runner that needs a large workload to produce fantasy stats. Here is the player who received the most votes: And here are all of the payers mentioned and the reasons why. In an attempt to point out these players, we asked our staff to look . Zamir White is looking like a capable back and could eat into Jacobs' carries. Jeff Bell: Gibson finished fourth in rushing attempts. In 2019, the Lions tried to steal him away with a restricted free agent offer. Unfortunately, the odds are stacked against Kamara repeating as the best player in fantasy football. There is also the slight concern that he will need some ramp-up time to fully be healed from his ACL tear from a season ago. Drafting running backs on the downside of their career, on bad offenses, in a platoon situation, is fraught with peril. Cohen is strictly limited to passing-down work, and the numbers suggest that he isn't outstanding in that role either. NFL's 5 Most Overrated Running Backs No Name August 6, 2011 Over the past decade, the NFL has really evolved into a passing league. Harris stayed an extra year in college to improve his draft capital, and rightfully so, as the 2020 class was filled with elite running back talent. He yields passing work to J.D. While the opportunity is undeniable, it's risky betting on Davis as the answer. Edmonds is a great player who offers a ton of talent on the field to help win games, but he will never be the high volume type of player that we are all desperately looking for each year. The notorious "Frankenstein" graphic did him no favors. So should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? Victoria Geary: Sanders has talent and breakaway ability, but he may not garner a large enough workload to be worth his ADP this season. Yet, Travis Etienne was drafted in the first round, and Carlos Hyde, who Urban Meyer coached at Ohio State, was signed. Ten different running backs had more targets alone than the entire Ravens backfield in 2020. These players will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. Matt Waldman: Many of my peers at Footballguys are worshippers of draft capital as a predictor of talent. Chad Parsons: Travis Etienne and Carlos Hyde were chosen additions by the new Jaguars regime with either Round 1 pedigree (Etienne) or a productive NFL profile (Hyde). The next season he hit bottom with a knee injury that damaged his ACL, MCL, and meniscus. It all depends on who works best in the new scheme and if the scheme works. Jason Wood: Preseason depth charts aren't perfectly predictive, but the new Texans coaching staff clearly sent a message listing Johnson as the No. Gordon is a massive red flag at his ADP. Drew Davenport: McKissic's price isn't super high, so anyone who believes in him isn't making a grave error where he's being drafted. This was largely in line with his previous year's number of 10.7 per game, allowing him to plod his way to an uninspiring RB24 finish. Victoria Geary: The Ravens have "made it a point of emphasis" to get Dobbins more looks in the passing game for 2021, but we know coach speak isn't very trustworthy during the offseason. Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer (MGM) #26. 5. That looks like a mistake from where the situation sits now. 1 Barry Sanders Barry Sanders is a former American football running back who spent his entire professional career with the Detroit Lions of the National Football League. 21 RB Sleepers. Got the exact same number of carries as Williams. I feel like most drafting Gordon right now are doing it on name value, but he now has plenty of competition with Javonte Williams and Mike Boone as priority adds this offseason. Crimson Tide skill players have been pretty good coming into the NFL recently, and Robinson's early start to camp has been generating buzz. Jason Wood: Sanders is talented, and when healthy, was productive under former head coach Doug Pederson. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans | Consensus Rankings RB3 | Consensus Projections RB2. He's a strong talent with some flaws with a better all-around back ahead of him. Jeff Haseley: Clyde Edwards-Helaire has all of the tools and skills to be a successful fantasy back but failing to finish runs in the end zone has slowed his progress. Pat Fitzmaurice: First, a hat tip: For a guy who was a nonfactor in Purdue's offense for four years and was mostly a special-teamer in his first four NFL seasons, Mostert turned out to be a pretty good running back. Some running backs, such as Chris Johnson this year, are a full 2.0 YPC over their offensive lines ADY. Gibsons problems with fumbles have been a complaint of Ron Rivera, and he has already shown it is not gone in the preseason. Robinson can be successful this year, but he will need luck and to earn the trust of the new coaching staff. 2022/07/02 . 24 Overrated RBs. The coaching staff did not ignore this, as they selected the best pass-catching running back in the fifth round of the NFL Draft in Kenneth Gainwell. Even the best backs need help, and Harris is less likely to have consistent holes to run through than any of the backs going around him. However, James Robinson is a better runner than Etienne at this point. Jameis Winston is a downfield passer, and Hill would rather run than check down. Drew Davenport: The memories of Johnson dominating in Arizona are still following him into this offseason. Jan 26 . Tevin Coleman is one of those veteran thorns in the sides of young backs to garner touches. Worst of all, he is now playing on the Houston Texans, who have no identity on offense heading into the season. Had more rushing touchdowns last year than Williams. . This is exactly what the Steelers tried to do by selecting Najee Harris in the first round in the NFL Draft. Etienne's selection early in the late first signals he should have an immediate opportunity, especially with a new coaching staff in place. This year, his new head coach -- Josh McDaniels -- is an offensive mind who made his career in schemes that utilized multiple backs as specialists for each situation. Given Russell Wilson's historical propensity to score rushing touchdowns in goal-line situations, it's hard to get overly excited about Williams, particularly in PPR formats. Raheem Mostert, San Francisco | Consensus Rankings RB31 | Consensus Projections RB35. No one can take away his heroics stepping in for Christian McCaffrey, and he was rewarded in the offseason when Atlanta presumably signed him to be new coach Arthur Smith's feature back. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY =. James Brimacombe: I view Melvin Gordon III this season a lot like I viewed Leonard Fournette in Jacksonville last offseason. Andy Hicks: Austin Ekeler isnt going to rush anyone to a fantasy title. Leave him there for the next guy to take him. There are too many risk factors to comfortably draft Ekeler as a No. Bursting onto the scene in our list is Micah Richards. Detroit signed Jamaal Williams to take the heavy work and kicked the tires on Todd Gurley before declining his addition. James is the more physically gifted player. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore | Consensus Rankings RB18 | Consensus Projections RB19. Vegas used other backs last year and pigeonholed Jacobs as a two-down grinder. . Andrew Davenport: Montgomery was the 26th-ranked PPR running back in points per game at 12.2 a contest through nine games last year. McKissic. only site on the planet. Adrian . Again, these are not the stats of an elite RB. The Brazilian won the Ballon d'Or in 2005 and has been inducted into the Milan hall of fame for his impact between 2008 and 2011 before heading back to his homeland. Now we can extinguish any hopes of Jacobs getting more involved in the passing game. Chad Parsons: It's a crowded Jets depth chart, and assuming Carter rises to the top of a collection of similar profiles is overstated with his draft valuation. Compared to Jim Brown (5.2 YPC), Larry Csonka (4.3 YPC), and Earl Campbell (4.3 YPC). As everyone knows by now, Montgomery faced some of the worst run defenses in the league to put up those huge numbers over that finishing stretch. The Ravens have also continued to trust Gus Edwards and have kept the backfield intact as a true timeshare. Whenever a new coaching group comes in, especially an inexperienced one, there is always the risk that players with a high fantasy price underachieve. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB20. Give me Chris Carson or Josh Jacobs in a similar draft range with stronger probabilities to hit as a top-10 option. Malcolm Brown has also been an underrated commodity for some time now and gets a shot to compete with Gaskin for significant playing time. Theyre going to be one of the worst teams in NFL History. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback is going to gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. Dillon is maturing as a receiver and might be used in that facet of the game despite his size profile suggesting hes a bruiser. John Riggins 19. Jim Brown Jim Brown spent a little less than a decade playing for the Cleveland Browns between 1957 and 1965, but that was enough time to prove he's likely the greatest running back to ever play the game and one of the greatest NFL players of all time. These are players that will not put up stats commensurate to their draft spot, and avoiding them is another of the important keys to a successful fantasy team. The current regime did not select Robinson. McKissic returns from injury to his role as the pass-catching back, and Washington also drafted Brian Robinson Jr in the third round. We don't yet know how much of Kamara's past success as a pass-catcher to attribute to Brees. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville | Consensus Rankings RB26 | Consensus Projections RB26. In June 2008, Sports Illustrated polled nearly 500 players on the most overrated athlete in baseball, and Jeter was numero uno. By the end of the year, that may change, but Etienne will be a change-of-pace and gadget player who might earn flex value this year until then. Phil Alexander: Hunt finished last season as the RB10 in PPR scoring, but his cumulative stats were buoyed by a four-game stint as Cleveland's starter when Nick Chubb was out with an MCL sprain. most overrated running backs of all time. The Ravens view Gus Edwards and Dobbins as co-starters who are both vital cogs, and the front office rewarded Edwards with a new contract supporting his role. Murray scored 11 rushing touchdowns in 9 different games in 2020. There's zero appeal here. Ryan Hester: Chubb shares his backfield with a very talented player in Kareem Hunt, and Hunt is the one who gets the lions share of the passing game work. Marshall Faulk 7. They traded up in the draft to select Javonte Williams and, without the large contract, may have already released the former Charger. 1 receiver for a significant chunk of the season. Washingtons offense ranked 21st in overall DVOA last season and doesnt project to improve much in 2022 despite the addition of Carson Wentz. Here are some stats from footballoutsiders.com: * Note: ADY = adjusted line yards, PSR = power success rank, SR = stuff ranking Average ADY: 4.29 Average PSR: 11th Average SR: 9th * These stats werent kept until 1996, so this doesnt include Bettis first 3 years in the NFL. Sigmund Bloom: Anthony Lynn basically told us that he will run a committee of Swift and free agent pick Jamaal Williams when he called Williams his "A" back. David Montgomery, Chicago | Consensus Rankings RB18 | Consensus Projections RB18. That is not the stat line of an elite RB at all. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh | Consensus Rankings RB17 | Consensus Projections RB15. The 49ers traded up to draft Trey Sermon, they brought in Wayne Gallman as a free agent, and Jeff Wilson is still around. His value is trending in the wrong direction. Jacobs is not the alpha; he's one of many in the Vegas backfield. Emmitt Smith 4. It appears as if theres a change of guard happening in San Fransisco. Tony Dorsett 12. Jeff Haseley: Josh McDaniels' history of using multiple running backs in his offense is enough to be concerned about Josh Jacobs not having a full-time role as the lead back for the Raiders. Unlike Lindsay, Williams can supplant Gordon at the goal line, and there's some possibility that Williams takes over the backfield right away. But the Ravens are a Super Bowl contender and won't veer from the system that's gotten them to the peak. Running back Chris Wells of the Arizona Cardinals was a first-round draft pick, 31st overall, in 2009 who always seemed to be on the injured list year after year. There are some people who will say he was the most overrated running back in history because he was 1-5 in the playoffs, and he never won a Super . Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis | Consensus Rankings RB8 | Consensus Projections RB7. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB33 | Consensus Projections RB31. Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay | Consensus Rankings RB30 | Consensus Projections RB27. Lynn will also rely on the hot hand approach - and Swift is more likely to run hot than Williams - but how often will this offense and team play well enough to give Swift a favorable game script. McKissic on your fantasy squad, but his outlier of a 2020 season is going to cause some to reach for him heading into 2021. Eric Dickerson 8. And free-agent acquisitions Mark Ingram II and Rex Burkhead didnt even play. Gaskin has missed long periods through injury in his first two seasons in the league. The team didn't improve a problem defensive line. I'm out. Gaskin is a nice player, but the signings by this staff the last two offseasons say they don't have confidence that Gaskin is their guy. Should drafters trust the first 25 games of his career where he was a compiler with minimal ceiling or the final six games against bad defenses in 2020? David Johnson, Houston | Consensus Rankings RB27 | Consensus Projections RB31. Footballguys staff members discuss running backs who are overvalued. Austin Ekeler, LA Chargers | Consensus Rankings RB7 | Consensus Projections RB7. The new coaching staff is inexperienced (second-youngest in the NFL), the system is unproven, the quarterback will gobble up a ton of rushing yards and touchdowns, and the front office has added running back depth aggressively in the offseason. The depth behind Ekeler is average, but there are enough players to steal touches. When we go into advanced stats, we can tell even more about Bettis: * Note: The stats are Bettis averages per season, not total career. The Steelers were 23rd in red zone attempts per game in 2020 and were ranked as having the fourth-worst offensive line ahead of the 2021 season by Pro Football Focus. Barry Sanders - 15, averaged one 50-plus-yard TD every 204 carries. Johnson himself has acknowledged it, and the backs' usage in the first preseason game indicates frustration for anyone wanting to farm this barren land. Before his 2020 campaign, McKissic had never rushed for more than 205 yards in a season. NFL career: 1988-91, all with Cincinnati Bengals (4 seasons) Statistics/16 games: 659.5 rush yards/4.6 yards per . He has the ability to handle that role and thrive in the process. Harris has the potential to be this year's Clyde Edwards-Helaire, as he may end up burning us relative to his climbing ADP. But now in the NFL, he is removed from passing down work in favor of J.D. Adrian Peterson 10. I can't see Mostert getting enough work to justify his current ADP. The 39 Most Overrated Bands Of All-Time While they might have some catchy tunes, some bands are really overrated. When I was comparing Bettis stats to the the 3 RBs I mentioned above, I saw that Bettis was highly overrated. Jalen Hurts will inevitably take away carries and goal-line rushes from the backfield, capping any true remaining upside Sanders may have been clinging to. Thurman Thomas 14. Marcus Allen 15. The Top Ten. That's right, Fournette was cut by the Jaguars, and I think the same could happen with Gordon entering this season. And even if he played all three downs, the target competition is strong (Davante Adams, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow). Ben Cummins: The Raiders offense should be fun this season with the additions of Davante Adams and new head coach, Josh McDaniels. Kevin Coleman: Antonio Gibsons value took a hit this offseason. His ADP has not shot up the draft boards as quickly as he propelled into fantasy relevance last year due to the almost non-existent target share he received in the passing game. However, his footwork and explosiveness in tight spaces allowed him to slip would-be tacklers with consistency. Jason Wood: Ekeler can single-handedly carry a fantasy team for a week or two. There isnt much to like here. Optimizer Quick Start, Percent Rostered Johnson is the incumbent with the largest contract, and yet he's being downshifted in favor of Mark Ingram II -- who did his best work in Baltimore, where Texans head coach David Culley comes from -- and Phillip Lindsay. Its easy and lazy to make comparisons to "Todd Gurley under Sean McVay," but that hope is pushing him into a tier of running backs that he does not belong. It is also quite possible that Gordon isn't even on the team by the time Week 1 rolls around. O.J. Backs who will receive bigger shares of their teams usage are going after Chubb. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas | Consensus Rankings RB19 | Consensus Projections RB19. Anthony Amico: The new regime for the Raiders is not particularly reassuring of Jacobs' role with the team. But Gordon averaged more yards per carry last year than Williams. Ryan Hester: Gibson is a unique case in fantasy football. That number of targets limited his ceiling, and he was barely a low-end RB2. Drew Davenport: Through nine games last year, Montgomery was the 26th ranked PPR running back in points per game at 12.2 a contest. Lineup Builder Quick Start, Multi-Lineup The Raiders have a lot of diverse depth with several different pass catchers, speed backs, and bruisers at the running back position for Jacobs to be drafted at his current ADP. Drafters are still grabbing David Johnson due to projected volume, yet in their first preseason game, Houston utilized Phillip Lindsay on first and second downs with the starters while David Johnson was restricted to a third-down role. Finally, Sanders has continued fumbling and dropping passes in camp -- problems that plagued him last season. Its almost always the other way around for top tier RBs. Barkley could hit on pure talent and above-average recuperative ability, but everything else is going against him to return value on his lofty ADP.

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